Publications

Online CV (Full list of publications)

Selected papers

Those papers give an idea of my research interests:

Bayesian epidemiological surveillance (Nowcasting and forecasting)

  1. FREITAS, LAÍS PICININI ; DA CRUZ FERREIRA, DANIELLE ANDREZA ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; CÂMARA, DANIEL CARDOSO PORTELA ; PORTELLA, TATIANA P. ; CARVALHO, MARILIA SÁ ; GOUVEIA, AYRTON SENA ; DE ALMEIDA, IASMIM FERREIRA ; ARAUJO, EDUARDO CORREA ; VACARO, LUÃ BIDA ; GANEM, FABIANA ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA TORRES ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; Bastos, Leonardo Soares . A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil. Infectious Disease Modelling, v. 10, p. 1479-1487, 2025. Link

  2. XIAO, YANG ; SOARES, GUILHERME ; BASTOS, LEONARDO ; IZBICKI, RAFAEL ; MORAGA, PAULA . Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 19, p. e0012501, 2025. Link

  3. KOEMEN, SILAS ; FARIA, NUNO R. ; Bastos, Leonardo S. ; RATMANN, OLIVER ; AMARAL, ANDRÉ VICTOR RIBEIRO . Fast and trustworthy nowcasting of dengue fever: A case study using attention-based probabilistic neural networks in São Paulo, Brazil. Epidemics, 2025. Link

  4. MILLER, SAM ; PREIS, TOBIAS ; MIZZI, GIOVANNI ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA TORRES ; MOAT, HELEN SUSANNAH . Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 16, p. e0010441, 2022. PUBMED

  5. COLÓN-GONZÁLEZ, FELIPE J. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; HOFMANN, BARBARA ; HOPKIN, ALISON ; HARPHAM, QUILLON ; CROCKER, TOM ; AMATO, ROSANNA ; FERRARIO, IACOPO ; MOSCHINI, FRANCESCA ; JAMES, SAMUEL ; MALDE, SAJNI ; AINSCOE, ELEANOR ; SINH NAM, VU ; QUANG TAN, DANG ; DUC KHOA, NGUYEN ; HARRISON, MARK ; TSAROUCHI, GINA ; LUMBROSO, DARREN ; BRADY, OLIVER J. ; LOWE, RACHEL ; et.al . Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles. PLOS MEDICINE, v. 18, p. e1003542, 2021. PUBMED

  6. LOWE, RACHEL ; LEE, SOPHIE A ; O’REILLY, KATHLEEN M ; BRADY, OLIVER J ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CARRASCO-ESCOBAR, GABRIEL ; DE CASTRO CATÃO, RAFAEL ; COLÓN-GONZÁLEZ, FELIPE J ; BARCELLOS, CHRISTOVAM ; CARVALHO, MARILIA SÁ ; BLANGIARDO, MARTA ; RUE, HÅVARD ; GASPARRINI, ANTONIO . Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, v. 5, p. e209-e219, 2021. PUBMED

  7. CARVALHO, M. S. ; FREITAS, L. P. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; BRASIL, P. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil. Scientific Reports, v. 10, p. 1752, 2020. PUBMED

  8. BASTOS, LEONARDO S; ECONOMOU, THEODOROS ; GOMES, MARCELO F C ; VILLELA, DANIEL A M ; COELHO, FLAVIO C ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; STONER, OLIVER ; BAILEY, TREVOR ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA T . A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, v. 38, p. 4363-4377, 2019. Link

  9. BARRENECHEA, GUILLERMO G. ; Bastos, Leonardo S. . Evaluation of impact of one dose varicella vaccine on the incidence of chickenpox in Argentina. VACCINE, p. 330-335, 2019. Link

Mosquito-borne diseases (Dengue, Chikungunya, malaria)

  1. BARRENECHEA, GUILLERMO GABRIEL ; SÁNCHEZ, ROCÍO ; CALDERÓN, ORNELLA CYNTHIA ; BUFFONE, IGNACIO RODRIGO ; Bastos, Leonardo Soares . Characterization of the most austral autochthonous dengue outbreak reported in the world (city of Bahía Blanca, Argentina, January-June 2024). A cross-sectional study. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, v. 51, p. 101254, 2025.

  2. BRADY, OLIVER J ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; CALDWELL, J. M. ; CAUCHEMEZ, S. ; CLAPHAM, H. E. ; DORIGATTI, I. ; GAYTHORPE, K. A. M. ; HU, W. ; HUSSAIN-ALKHATEEB, L. ; JOHANSSON, M. A. ; LIM, A. ; LOPEZ, V. ; MAUDE, R. J. ; MESSINA, J. P. ; MORDECAI, E. A. ; PETERSON, A. T. ; RODRIQUEZ-BARRAQUE, I. ; RABE, I. B. ; ROJAS, D. P. ; RYAN, S. J. ; et.al . Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections. PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY (ONLINE), v. 21, p. e1012771, 2025. PUBMED

  3. LOPES, RAFAEL ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.. On the verge: outbreak risk after two years of record-breaking dengue epidemics in Brazil. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, v. 45, p. 101068, 2025. PUBMED

  4. ARAUJO, EDUARDO C. ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA T. ; LOCH, SANDRO ; VACARO, LUÃ B. ; FREITAS, LAÍS PICININI ; LANA, RAQUEL M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; DE ALMEIDA, IASMIM F. ; VALENTE, FERNANDA ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; COELHO, FLÁVIO C. . Large-scale epidemiological modelling: scanning for mosquito-borne diseases spatio-temporal patterns in Brazil. Royal Society Open Science, v. 12, p. 241261, 2025. PUBMED

  5. GOUVEIA, AYRTON SENA ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA ; DE ALMEIDA, IASMIM FERREIRA ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; BIANCHI, LUCAS MONTEIRO ; OLIVEIRA, SARA DE SOUZA ; ARAUJO, EDUARDO CORREA ; FERREIRA, DANIELLE ANDREZA DA CRUZ ; OLIVEIRA, DALILA MACHADO BOTELHO ; GODINHO, VINICIUS BARBOSA ; VACARO, LUÃ BIDA ; RIBACK, THAIS IRENE SOUZA ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA TORRES . Unraveling regional variability in Dengue outbreaks in Brazil: leveraging the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM) and climate data to optimize vector control strategies. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 19, p. e0013175, 2025. PUBMED

  6. AYALA, MARIO J. C. ; VALIATI, NAIARA C. M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. . Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times. MALARIA JOURNAL, v. 22, p. 49, 2023. PUBMED

  7. BRINDLE, HANNAH E. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CHRISTLEY, ROBERT ; CONTAMIN, LUCIE ; DANG, LE HAI ; ANH, DANG DUC ; FRENCH, NEIL ; GRIFFITHS, MICHAEL ; NADJM, BEHZAD ; VAN DOORN, H. ROGIER ; THAI, PHAM QUANG ; DUONG, TRAN NHU ; CHOISY, MARC . The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam. BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v. 23, p. 403, 2023. PUBMED

  8. FERREIRA DE ALMEIDA, IASMIM ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA TORRES ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DE SOUZA OLIVEIRA, SARA ; ANDREZA DA CRUZ FERREIRA, DANIELLE ; GODINHO, VINICIUS BARBOSA ; SOUZA RIBACK, THAIS IRENE ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; COELHO, FLAVIO CODEÇO . The expansion of chikungunya in Brazil. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, v. 25, p. 100571, 2023. PUBMED

  9. PAVANI, JESSICA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; MORAGA, PAULA . Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, v. 47, p. 100616, 2023. PUBMED

  10. AYALA, MARIO J. C. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. . On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis. MALARIA JOURNAL, v. 21, p. 52, 2022. PUBMED

  11. CODECO, CLAUDIA T. ; OLIVEIRA, SARA S. ; FERREIRA, DANIELLE A.C. ; RIBACK, THAIS I.S. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; LANA, RAQUEL M. ; ALMEIDA, IASMIM ; GODINHO, VINICIUS B. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G. ; COELHO, FLAVIO C. . Fast expansion of dengue in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, v. 12, p. 100274, 2022. PUBMED

  12. GOMES, MARCELO F. C. ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA T ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; LANA, RAQUEL M. . Measuring the contribution of human mobility to malaria persistence. MALARIA JOURNAL, v. 19, p. 404, 2020. PUBMED

  13. VILLELA, D. A. M. ; BASTOS, L. S. ; DE CARVALHO, L. M. ; CRUZ, O. G. ; GOMES, M. F. C. ; DUROVNI, B. ; LEMOS, M. C. ; SARACENI, V. ; COELHO, F. C. ; CODEÇO, C. T. . Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, v. 145, p. 1649-1657, 2017 PUBMED

Respiratory diseases (COVID-19, Influenza, etc)

  1. DA SILVA, MICHELE F. B. ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; SANTOS, HELOISA F. P. ; ESPÍNDOLA, OTÁVIO M. ; RESENDE, PAOLA CRISTINA ; PENETRA, STEPHANIE L. S. ; PINA-COSTA, ANIELLE ; DE MORAES, ISABELLA C. V. ; CALVET, GUILHERME A. ; FULLER, TREVON L. ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA M. ; CARVALHO, MARILIA SÁ ; BRASIL, PATRICIA . Natural, vaccine-induced immunity and the probability of experiencing SARS-CoV-2 infection in a household cohort in Rio de Janeiro. Scientific Reports, v. 15, p. 17211, 2025. PUBMED

  2. OLIVEIRA, FERNANDA ESTHEFANE GARRIDES ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DE OLIVEIRA, RAQUEL DE VASCONCELLOS CARVALHÃES ; SANTOS, HELOÍSA FERREIRA PINTO ; DAMASCENO, LUANA SANTANA ; FRANCO, LUIZA SALES ; CARVALHO, LIEGE MARIA ABREU DE ; FULLER, TREVON LOUIS ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; CARVALHO, MARILIA ; BRASIL, PATRÍCIA . Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil. BMJ Open, v. 15, p. e095622, 2025. PUBMED

  3. AMARAL, LÉA DE FREITAS ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.. Was the COVID-19 epidemic synchronous in space? An analysis in the health regions of the Rio de Janeiro state, 2020-2022. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA, v. 27, p. e240010, 2024. PUBMED

  4. MOREIRA, RODRIGO ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; FREITAS, LAÍS PICININI ; PACHECO, ANTONIO G. . Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022. PLOS Global Public Health, v. 4, p. e0002576, 2024. PUBMED

  5. FREITAS, L. P. ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA TORRES ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; VILLELA, DANIEL ANTUNES MACIEL ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; PACHECO, ANTONIO GUILHERME ; COELHO, FLAVIO CODEÇO ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; CARVALHO, LUIZ MAX FAGUNDES DE ; NIQUINI, ROBERTA PEREIRA ; ALMEIDA, WALQUIRIA APARECIDA FERREIRA DE ; SILVA, DAIANA ARAÚJO DA ; CARVALHO, FELIPE COTRIM DE ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA . Evaluation of the design of the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance system in Brazil. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 40, p. e00028823, 2024. PUBMED

  6. SILVA, MICHELE FERNANDA BORGES DA ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; SANTOS, HELOISA FERREIRA PINTO ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; PINA-COSTA, ANIELLE DE ; PENETRA, STEPHANIE LEMA SUAREZ ; MORAES, ISABELLA CAMPOS VARGAS DE ; CALVET, GUILHERME AMARAL ; FULLER, TREVON LOUIS ; SILVA, PAOLA CRISTINA RESENDE ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA AGUDO MENDONÇA TEIXEIRA DE ; BRASIL, PATRICIA . Cohort profile: follow-up of a household cohort throughout five epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 40, p. e00152023, 2024. PUBMED

  7. FULLER, TREVON ; FLORES MAMANI, ROXANA ; FERREIRA PINTO SANTOS, HELOÍSA ; MELO ESPÍNDOLA, OTÁVIO ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; LOPES MELO, CAROLINA ; BORGES DA SILVA, MICHELE FERNANDA ; AMARAL CALVET, GUILHERME ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; CARVALHO, MARÍLIA SÁ ; BRASIL, PATRÍCIA . Sex, vaccination status, and comorbidities influence long COVID persistence. Journal of Infection and Public Health, v. 17, p. 102562, 2024. PUBMED

  8. FULLER, TREVON L ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CARVALHO, MARILIA SÁ ; RESENDE, PAOLA CRISTINA ; DAMASCENO, LUANA ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; MEDEIROS, FERNANDO ; CALVET, GUILHERME ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; NIELSEN-SAINES, KARIN ; WHITWORTH, JAMES ; SMITH, CHRISTOPHER ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA ; BRASIL, PATRÍCIA . The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic. Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society, v. 12, p. 413-420, 2023. PUBMED

  9. PENETRA, STEPHANIE L S ; SANTOS, HELOISA F P ; CRISTINA RESENDE, PAOLA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DA SILVA, MICHELE F B ; PINA-COSTA, ANIELLE ; SERRANO LOPES, RENATA ; SABOIA-VAHIA, LEONARDO ; CAROLINE ALVES DE OLIVEIRA, ANY ; CAVALCANTE PEREIRA, ELISA ; MEDEIROS FILHO, FERNANDO ; WAKIMOTO, MAYUMI D ; CALVET, GUILHERME A ; FULLER, TREVON L ; WHITWORTH, JIMMY ; SMITH, CHRISTOPHER ; NIELSEN-SAINES, KARIN ; SÁ CARVALHO, MARILIA ; ESPÍNDOLA, OTÁVIO M ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; et.al . SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases in a household-based prospective cohort in Rio de Janeiro. JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v. 228, p. 1680-1689, 2023. PUBMED

  10. FERREIRA, LEONARDO SOUTO ; DARCIE MARQUITTI, FLAVIA MARIA ; PAIXÃO DA SILVA, RAFAEL LOPES ; BORGES, MARCELO EDUARDO ; GOMES, M F C ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; KRAENKEL, ROBERTO ANDRÉ ; COUTINHO, RENATO MENDES ; PRADO, PAULO INÁCIO ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, v. 17, p. 100397, 2023. PUBMED

  11. DE ALMEIDA, JÉSSICA CHAGAS ; PAIVA, NATALIA SANTANA ; GIBSON, GERUSA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; MEDRONHO, ROBERTO DE ANDRADE ; BLOCH, KATIA VERGETTI . Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020-2021. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA, v. 26, p. e230039, 2023. PUBMED

  12. SANTOS, CLEBER VINICIUS BRITO DOS ; VALIATI, NAIARA CRISTINA MORAIS ; NORONHA, TATIANA GUIMARÃES DE ; PORTO, VICTOR BERTOLLO GOMES ; PACHECO, ANTÔNIO GUILHERME ; FREITAS, LAÍS PICININI ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; GOMES, M F C ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; LUZ, PAULA MENDES ; CARVALHO, LUIZ MAX FAGUNDES DE ; WERNECK, GUILHERME LOUREIRO ; STRUCHINER, CLAUDIO JOSÉ ; VILLELA, DANIEL ANTUNES MACIEL . The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, v. 20, p. 100465, 2023. PUBMED

  13. BARBERIA, LORENA G. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DE SOUSA, TATIANE C MORAES . School reopening and COVID-19 in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, v. 5, p. 100149, 2022. PUBMED

  14. BRIZZI, ANDREA ; WHITTAKER, CHARLES ; SERVO, LUCIANA M. S. ; HAWRYLUK, IWONA ; PRETE, CARLOS A. ; DE SOUZA, WILLIAM M. ; AGUIAR, RENATO S. ; ARAUJO, LEONARDO J. T. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; BLENKINSOP, ALEXANDRA ; BUSS, LEWIS F. ; CANDIDO, DARLAN ; CASTRO, MARCIA C. ; COSTA, SILVIA F. ; CRODA, JULIO ; DE SOUZA SANTOS, ANDREZA ARUSKA ; DYE, CHRISTOPHER ; FLAXMAN, SETH ; FONSECA, PAULA L. C. ; GEDDES, VICTOR E. V. ; et.al . Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. NATURE MEDICINE, v. 28, p. 1476-1485, 2022. PUBMED

  15. CARVALHO, MARILIA SA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; FULLER, TREVON ; CRUZ, OWALDO GONÇALVES ; DAMASCENO, LUANA ; CALVET, GUILHERME ; RESENDE, PAOLA CRISTINA ; SMITH, CHRIS ; WHITWORTH, JIMMY ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA ; BRASIL, PATRICIA . Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, v. 12, p. 100283, 2022. PUBMED

  16. BARBERIA, LORENA G. ; BOING, ALEXANDRA ; SANTANA, LUCIANA ; COTA, WESLEY ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Government inaction on COVID-19 vaccines contributes to the persistence of childism in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, v. 13, p. 100346, 2022. PUBMED

  17. BRASIL, PATRÍCIA ; DAMASCENO, LUANA ; FULLER, TREVON ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; MEDEIROS, FERNANDO ; CALVET, GUILHERME AMARAL ; RESENDE, PAOLA ; WHITWORTH, JIMMY ; SMITH, CHRIS ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA M ; CARVALHO, MARILIA . Cohort-profile: Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMJ Open, v. 12, p. e067212, 2022. PUBMED

  18. LUGON, PÂMELLA ; FULLER, TREVON ; DAMASCENO, LUANA ; CALVET, GUILHERME ; RESENDE, PAOLA CRISTINA ; MATOS, ALINE ROCHA ; MACHADO FUMIAN, TULIO ; CORREIA MALTAA, FÁBIO ; SALGADO, ALINE DESSIMONI ; FERNANDES, FERNANDA CHRISTINA MORONE ; ABREU DE CARVALHO, LIEGE MARIA ; GUARALDO, LUSIELE ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; WHITWORTH, JAMES ; SMITH, CHRIS ; NIELSEN-SAINES, KARIN ; SIQUEIRA, MARILDA ; CARVALHO, MARILIA SA ; BRASIL, PATRICIA ; et.al . SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in Children and Household Contacts in a Slum in Rio de Janeiro. PEDIATRICS, v. 148, p. e2021050182, 2021. PUBMED

  19. IZBICKI, RAFAEL ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; IZBICKI, M. ; LOPES, H. ; SANTOS, T. M. . How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo?. Clinics, v. 76, p. e3250, 2021. PUBMED

  20. LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; FREITAS, LAÍS PICININI ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA TORRES ; PACHECO, ANTÔNIO GUILHERME ; CARVALHO, LUIZ MAX FAGUNDES DE ; VILLELA, DANIEL ANTUNES MACIEL ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; NIQUINI, ROBERTA PEREIRA ; PORTO, VICTOR BERTOLLO GOMES ; GAVA, CAROLINE ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 37, p. e00049821, 2021. PUBMED

  21. LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; VILLELA, DANIEL ANTUNES MACIEL ; CODEÇO, CLÁUDIA TORRES . Emergência do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) e o papel de uma vigilância nacional em saúde oportuna e efetiva. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 36, p. e00019620, 2020. PUBMED

  22. BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; NIQUINI, R. P. ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; VILLELA, DANIEL A M ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; COELHO, FLAVIO C ; CODEÇO, C. T. ; GOMES, M. F. C. . COVID-19 e hospitalizações por SRAG no Brasil: uma comparação até a 12ª semana epidemiológica de 2020. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 36, p. e00019620, 2020. PUBMED

  23. NIQUINI, ROBERTA PEREIRA ; LANA, RAQUEL MARTINS ; PACHECO, ANTONIO GUILHERME ; CRUZ, OSWALDO GONÇALVES ; COELHO, FLÁVIO CODEÇO ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; VILLELA, DANIEL ANTUNES MACIEL ; GOMES, MARCELO FERREIRA DA COSTA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . SRAG por COVID-19 no Brasil: descrição e comparação de características demográficas e comorbidades com SRAG por influenza e com a população geral. CADERNOS DE SAÚDE PÚBLICA, v. 36, p. e00149420, 2020. PUBMED

  24. COELHO, FLÁVIO C. ; LANA, RAQUEL M. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; PASTORE Y PIONTTI, ANA ; DAVIS, JESSICA T. ; VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA T. ; GOMES, MARCELO F. C. . Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability. PLoS One, v. 15, p. e0238214, 2020. PUBMED

Multimorbidity

  1. DOMINGOS, ANA LUIZA GOMES ; NOBRE, ALINE ARAÚJO ; BRANDÃO, JOANA MAIA ; BARRETO, SANDHI MARIA ; BENSENOR, ISABELA JUDITH MARTINS ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DA FONSECA, MARIA DE JESUS MENDES ; MORENO, ARLINDA B. ; GRIEP, ROSANE HARTER ; CARDOSO, LETÍCIA DE OLIVEIRA . Influence of internal migration on multimorbidity in the Brazilian longitudinal study of adult health (ELSA-Brasil). Journal Of Public Health-Heidelberg, v. x, p. 1-9, 2024. Link

  2. OLIVEIRA, FERNANDA ESTHEFANE GARRIDES ; GRIEP, ROSANE HÄRTER ; CHOR, DORA ; BARRETO, SANDHI MARIA ; MOLINA, MARIA DEL CARMEN BISI ; MACHADO, LUCIANA A. C. ; FONSECA, MARIA DE JESUS MENDES DA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S.. Racial inequalities in the development of multimorbidity of chronic conditions: results from a Brazilian prospective cohort. International Journal for Equity in Health, v. 23, p. 120, 2024. PUBMED

  3. OLIVEIRA, FERNANDA ESTHEFANE GARRIDES ; GRIEP, ROSANE HARTER ; CHOR, DORA ; GIATTI, LUANA ; MACHADO, LUCIANA A. C. ; BARRETO, SANDHI MARIA ; DA COSTA PEREIRA, ALEXANDRE ; FONSECA, MARIA DE JESUS MENDES DA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Racial inequalities in multimorbidity: baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, v. 22, p. 1319, 2022. PUBMED

STI and hard-to-reach populations

  1. VERAS, MARIA AMELIA DE SOUSA MASCENA ; PINHEIRO, THIAGO FELIX ; GALAN, LENICE ; MAGNO, LAIO ; LEAL, ANDRÉA FACHEL ; KNAUTH, DANIELA RIVA ; MOTTA-CASTRO, ANA RITA COIMBRA ; QUEIROZ, RITA SUELY BACURI DE ; MAYAUD, PHILIPPE ; MCCARTNEY, DANIEL JASON ; HUGHES, GWENDA ; SANTOS, CAMILA MATTOS DOS ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; BASSICHETTO, KATIA CRISTINA ; SPERANDEI, SANDRO ; BARROS, CLAUDIA RENATA DOS SANTOS ; SILVA, RODRIGO CALADO DA ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO INÁCIO ; DOURADO, MARIA INÊS COSTA . TransOdara study: the challenge of integrating methods, settings and procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA, v. 27, p. e240002.supl.1, 2024. PUBMED
  2. SPERANDEI, SANDRO ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; RIBEIRO-ALVES, MARCELO ; REIS, ARIANNE ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO INÁCIO . Assessing logistic regression applied to respondent-driven sampling studies: a simulation study with an application to empirical data. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, v. 25, p. 1-15, 2022. Link
  3. NIQUINI, ROBERTA PEREIRA ; CORRÊA DA MOTA, JUREMA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; DA COSTA MOREIRA BARBOSA, DIEGO ; FALCÃO, JULIANE DA SILVA ; PALMIERI, PALOMA ; MARTINS, PATRÍCIA ; MELO VILLAR, LIVIA ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO I. . Persistently high hepatitis C rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil [a systematic review and meta-analysis]. Scientific Reports, v. 12, p. 330, 2022. PUBMED
  4. Paiva, N. S. ; VILLELA, D. A. M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO I. . Women who have undergone abortion in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cadernos de Saude Publica, v. 36, p. e00190718, 2020. PUBMED
  5. TORRES, THIAGO S. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; KAMEL, LUCIANA ; BEZERRA, DANIEL R.B. ; FERNANDES, NILO M. ; MOREIRA, RONALDO I. ; GARNER, ALEX ; VELOSO, VALDILEA G. ; GRINSZTEJN, BEATRIZ ; DE BONI, RAQUEL B. . Do men who have sex with men who report alcohol and illicit drug use before/during sex (Chemsex) present moderate/high risk for substance use disorders?. DRUG AND ALCOHOL DEPENDENCE, v. 209, p. 107908, 2020. PUBMED
  6. COUTINHO, C. F. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; MOTA, J. C. ; TOLEDO, L. ; COSTA, K. ; BERTONI, NEILANE ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO I. . The risks of HCV infection among Brazilian crack cocaine users: incorporating diagnostic test uncertainty. Scientific Reports, v. 9, p. 443, 2019. PUBMED
  7. BASTOS, FRANCISCO I. ; BASTOS, L. S. ; COUTINHO, C. F. ; TOLEDO, L. ; MOTA, J. C. ; VELASCO-DE-CASTRO, C. A. ; SPERANDEI, SANDRO ; BRIGNOL, S. M. ; TRAVASSOS, T. S. ; SANTOS, C. M. ; MALTA, M. S. ; Divas Research Group . HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis among transgender women from Brazil. MEDICINE, v. 97, p. S16-S24, 2018. Link
  8. SPERANDEI, SANDRO ; Bastos, Leonardo Soares ; RIBEIRO-ALVES, MARCELO ; BASTOS, FRANCISCO INÁCIO . Assessing respondent-driven sampling: A simulation study across different networks. SOCIAL NETWORKS, v. 52, p. 48-55, 2018. Link

Statistical methods

  1. CARVALHO, LUIZ M. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. ; COELHO, FLAVIO C. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Bayesian Inference for the Weights in Logarithmic Pooling. Bayesian Analysis, v. 18, p. 223-251, 2023. DOI
  2. GONÇALVES, KELLY C. M. ; MIGON, HÉLIO S. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Dynamic Quantile Linear Models: A Bayesian Approach. Bayesian Analysis, v. 15, p. 335-362, 2020. DOI
  3. PAVANI, JESSICA ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; MORAGA, PAULA . Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, v. 47, p. 100616, 2023. PUBMED
  4. IZBICKI, RAFAEL ; DINIZ, MÁRCIO A. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Sensitivity and specificity in prevalence studies: The importance of considering uncertainty. Clinics, v. 75, p. e2449, 2020. PUBMED
  5. BASTOS, LEONARDO S; ECONOMOU, THEODOROS ; GOMES, MARCELO F C ; VILLELA, DANIEL A M ; COELHO, FLAVIO C ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; STONER, OLIVER ; BAILEY, TREVOR ; CODEÇO, CLAUDIA T . A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, v. 38, p. 4363-4377, 2019. Link
  6. Bastos, Leonardo S.; De OLIVEIRA, R. V. C. ; VESLAQUE, L. S. . Obtaining adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models in cross-sectional studies. Cadernos de Saúde Pública (ENSP. Impresso), v. 31, p. 487-495, 2015. Link
  7. ZAPATA-VAZQUEZ, R. ; BASTOS, L. S. ; O’HAGAN, A. . Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions. JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS, v. 1, p. 1-15, 2014. Link
  8. BASTOS, L. S.; ROSA, J. M. C. . Predicting probabilities for the 2010 FIFA World Cup games using a Poisson-Gamma model. Journal of Applied Statistics, v. 40, p. 1-12, 2013. Link
  9. Bastos, Leonardo S.; O’HAGAN, A. . Diagnostics for Gaussian Process Emulators. TECHNOMETRICS, v. 51, p. 425-438, 2009. Link
  10. BASTOS, L. S.; Gamerman, Dani . Dynamic survival models with spatial frailty. LIFETIME DATA ANALYSIS, v. 12, p. 441-460, 2006. Link

Protein modelling

  1. COSTA, MAURICIO G. S. ; BATISTA, PAULO R. ; GOMES, ANTONIEL ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; LOUET, MAXIME ; FLOQUET, NICOLAS ; BISCH, PAULO M. ; PERAHIA, DAVID . MDexciteR: Enhanced Sampling Molecular Dynamics by Excited Normal Modes or Principal Components Obtained from Experiments. Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation, v. 19, p. 412-425, 2023. PUBMED

  2. ROCHA, GISELE V. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; COSTA, MAURICIO G. S. . Identification of Potential Allosteric Binding Sites in Cathepsin K Based on Intramolecular Communication. PROTEINS-STRUCTURE FUNCTION AND BIOINFORMATICS, v. 88, p. 1675-1687, 2020. PUBMED

Pre-prints

  1. Freitas, Laís Picinini et al. (2025) A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil medrxiv

  2. Rauth, Caio S. et al. Assessing mosquito dynamics and dengue transmission in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil through an enhanced temperature-dependent mathematical model medrxiv

  3. Koemen, Silas et al. (2025) Fast and Trustworthy Nowcasting of Dengue Fever: A Case Study Using Attention-Based Probabilistic Neural Networks in São Paulo, Brazil medrxiv

  4. Araújo, Eduardo Correa (2025) Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: the 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil medrxiv

  5. Lopez Velma K. et al. (2024) A roadmap to account for reporting delays for public health situational awareness – a case study with COVID-19 and dengue in United States jurisdictions medrxiv

  6. Xiao, Yang et al. (2024) Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information medrxiv

  7. Skarstein, Emma et al. (2024) Bayesian models for missing and misclassified variables using integrated nested Laplace approximations. arxiv

  8. Araújo, Eduardo et al. (2024) Large-scale Epidemiological modeling: Scanning for Mosquito-Borne Diseases Spatio-temporal Patterns in Brazil. arxiv

  9. Ganem, Fabiana et al. (2024) Mosqlimate: a platform to providing automatable access to data and forecasting models for arbovirus disease. arxiv

  10. Moreira, Rodrigo et al (2023) Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022 medrxiv

  11. Sperandei, Sandro et al. (2021) Evaluation of Logistic Regression Applied to Respondent-Driven Samples: Simulated and Real Data arxiv

  12. Mizzi, Giovanni et al. (2021) Faster indicators of dengue fever case counts using Google and Twitter arxiv

  13. Ferreira, Leonardo Souto et al. (2021) Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis medrxiv

  14. Brizzi, Andrea et al. (2021) Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals medrxiv

  15. Villela, Daniel A.M. et al. (2021) Effectiveness of Mass Vaccination in Brazil against Severe COVID-19 Cases medrxiv

  16. Ayala, Mario J.C. et al. (2021) On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis medrxiv

  17. Coelho, Flávio Codeço et al. (2020) Modeling the Post-Containment Elimination of Transmission of COVID-19 medrxiv

  18. Colón-González, Felipe J. et al. (2020) Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam using superensembles medrxiv

  19. Coelho, Flávio Codeço et al. (2020) Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the burden on the Health Care System medrxiv

  20. Brady, Oliver et al. (2020) The potential cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study medrxiv

  21. Bastos, Leonardo S. et al (2018) Fast approaches for Bayesian estimation of size of hard-to-reach populations using Network Scale-up arxiv

  22. Gonçalves, Kelly et al. (2018) Dynamic quantile linear models: a Bayesian approach arxiv

  23. Bastos, Leonardo S. (2017) Modelling reporting delays for disease surveillance data arxiv

  24. Coelho, Flávio Codeço et al. (2016) Sexual transmission causes a marked increase in the incidence of Zika in women in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Biorxiv

  25. Codeço, Claudia Torres et al. (2016) InfoDengue: a nowcasting system for the surveillance of dengue fever transmission. Biorxiv

  26. Carvalho, Luiz Max et al. (2015) Combining probability distributions: Extending the logarithmic pooling approach arxiv

  27. Bastos, Leonardo S. et al. (2014) Obtaining adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression model in cross-sectional studies arxiv

  28. Bastos et al. (2012) Binary regression analysis with network structure of respondent-driven sampling data. arxiv

Book

  1. BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; WILKINSON, R. D. . Análise Estatística de Simuladores. São Paulo: Associação Brasileira de Estatística, 2010. 91p . PDF

Book chapters

  1. Silva, João Flávio Andrade ; IZBICKI, RAFAEL ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; Soares, Guilherme P. . Monitoring Viral Infections in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Patients in Brazil. Contributions to Statistics. 1ed.: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024, v. , p. 75-80.

  2. Gamerman, Dani ; MAYRINK, V. D. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Pandemic Data. In: Dani Gamerman; Marcos O. Prates; Thaís Paiva; Vinícius D. Mayrink. (Org.). Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project. 1ed.Oxon: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2022, v. , p. 17-30.

  3. BASTOS, LEONARDO S.; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; GOMES, MARCELO F. C. . Modelling misreported data. In: Dani Gamerman; Marcos O. Prates; Thaís Paiva; Vinícius D. Mayrink. (Org.). Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project. 1ed.Oxon: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2022, v. , p. 113-140.

  4. PONTES, A. L. M. ; CARDOSO, A. M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; SANTOS, R. V. . Pandemia de Covid-19 e os Povos Indígenas no Brasil: cenários sociopolíticos e epidemiológicos. In: MATTA, G.C., REGO, S., SOUTO, E.P., and SEGATA, J.. (Org.). Os impactos sociais da Covid-19 no Brasil: populações vulnerabilizadas e respostas à pandemia. 1ed.Rio de Janeiro: Editora Fiocruz, 2021, v. , p. 123-.

  5. CODEÇO, C. T. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. ; COELHO, FLAVIO CODEÇO ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; GOMES, MARCELO F. C. ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; LANA, RAQUEL M. . Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da Covid-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica nas microrregiões brasileiras. In: FREITAS, C. M.; BARCELLOS, C.; VILLELA, D. A. M.,. (Org.). Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. 1aed.Rio de Janeiro: Editora Fiocruz, 2021, v. , p. 75-84.

  6. LANA, RAQUEL M. ; CODEÇO, C. T. ; SANTOS, R. V. ; CUNHA, B. ; COELHO, FLAVIO C ; CRUZ, OSWALDO G ; CALDAS, A. D. R. ; SOUZA, M. C. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; PONTES, A. L. M. ; GOMES, MARCELO F. C. ; TAVARES, I. N. ; DAL?ASTA, A. P. ; RORATO, A. C. ; ESCADA, M. I. S. ; Carvalho, Luiz Max ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. ; DAMASCO, F. S. ; CARDOSO, A. M. . Vulnerabilidade das populações indígenas à pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil e os desafios para o seu monitoramento. In: FREITAS, C. M.; BARCELLOS, C.; VILLELA, D. A. M.,. (Org.). Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. 1aed.Rio de Janeiro: Editora Fiocruz, 2021, v. , p. 127-142.

  7. CORTES, J. J. C. ; ALBUQUERQUE, B. C. ; HERKRATH, F. J. ; NAVECA, F. G. ; LUZ, S. L. B. ; LIMA, R. T. S. ; GOMES, MARCELO F. C. ; VILLELA, DANIEL A. M. ; BARCELLOS, CHRISTOVAM ; FREITAS, C. M. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. ; PORTELA, M. C. ; FERNANDES, V. R. . Pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2 no estado do Amazonas. In: FREITAS, C. M.; BARCELLOS, C.; VILLELA, D. A. M.,. (Org.). Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. 1aed.Rio de Janeiro: Editora Fiocruz, 2021, v. , p. 143-158.

  8. Carvalho, Luiz Max ; Struchiner, Claudio J. ; BASTOS, LEONARDO S. . Bayesian Inference of Deterministic Population Growth Models. In: Polpo de Campos, A.; Neto, F.L.; Ramos Rifo, L.; Stern, J.M., Lauretto, M.. (Org.). Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics: EBEB 2014. 1ed.: Springer International Publishing, 2015, v. 168, p. 217-228.

Packages

  1. Lopes, Rafael et al. (2025) Nowcaster (site; github)