The papers are organized by subject, a full list in chronological order can be found in my Lattes CV (an English version in also available)

Papers

Infectious disease epidemiology

Arboviroses

  • Brindle, Bastos, et al.. The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2023.

  • Ferreira et al.. The expansion of chikungunya in Brazil. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.

  • Pavani, Bastos & Moraga. Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2023.

  • Codeço et al.. Fast expansion of dengue in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.

  • Miller et al.. Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2022.

  • Lowe et al.. Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.

  • Colon-Gonzalez, Bastos, et al.. Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles. PLOS Medicine, 2021.

  • Brady et al.. The cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study. BMC Medicine, 2020.

  • Carvalho et al.. Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil. Scientific Reports, 2020.

  • Codeço et al.. Infodengue: A nowcasting system for the surveillance of arboviruses in Brazil. Revue de Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique, 2018.

  • Villela, Bastos et al.. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology And Infection, 2017.

  • Codeço et al.. Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Memorias Do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2016. Covid-19

  • Coelho et al.. Higher incidence of Zika in adult women than adult men in Rio de Janeiro suggests a significant contribution of sexual transmission from men to women. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2016.

COVID-19

  • da Silva et al. Cohort profile: follow-up of a household cohort throughout five epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2024. PUBMED

  • Amaral, Lana & Bastos. Was the COVID-19 epidemic synchronous in space? An analysis in the health regions of the Rio de Janeiro state, 2020-2022. Brazilian Journal of Epidemiology, 2024. PUBMED

  • Moreira, Bastos, Carvalho, Freitas, Pacheco. Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022. PLOS Global Public Health, 2024. PUBMED

  • Fuller, Bastos, et al. The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic. Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society, 2023.

  • Penetra et al.. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases in a household-based prospective cohort in Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Infectious Diseases.

  • Ferreira et al. Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.

  • Santos et al.. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.

  • Brasil et al.. Cohort-profile: Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMJ Open, 2022.

  • Leveau & Bastos. Desigualdades socioespaciales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en tres olas de propagación: un análisis intraurbano en Argentina. Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2022.

  • Barberia, et al.. Government inaction on COVID-19 vaccines contributes to the persistence of childism in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.

  • Carvalho, Bastos, et al.. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.

  • Barberia et al.. School reopening and COVID-19 in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.

  • Brizzi et al.. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. Nature Medicine, 2022.

  • Izbicki et al.. How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo? Clinics, 2021.

  • Lana et al.. Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2021.

  • Lugon et al.. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in Children and Household Contacts in a Slum in Rio de Janeiro. Pediatrics, 2021.

  • Coura-Vidal, et al.. Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process. Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo, 2021

  • Coelho et al.. Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability. PLOS One, 2020.

  • Bastos et al.. COVID-19 e hospitalizações por SRAG no Brasil: uma comparação até a 12ª semana epidemiológica de 2020. Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2020.

  • Lana et al.. Emergência do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) e o papel de uma vigilância nacional em saúde oportuna e efetiva. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.

  • Izbicki, DInis & Bastos. Sensitivity and specificity in prevalence studies: The importance of considering uncertainty. Clinics, 2020.

  • Niquini et al.. SRAG por COVID-19 no Brasil: descrição e comparação de características demográficas e comorbidades com SRAG por influenza e com a população geral. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.

Malaria

  • Ayala et al.. Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times. Malaria Journal, 2023.
  • Ayala et al.. On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis. Malaria Journal, 2022.
  • Gomes et al.. Measuring the contribution of human mobility to malaria persistence. Malaria Journal, 2020.
  • Lima et al.. MosqTent: An individual portable protective double-chamber mosquito trap for anthropophilic mosquitoes. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017.

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs)

  • Veras et al. TransOdara study: The challenge of integrating methods, settings and procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Revista Brasieira de Epidemiologia, 2024. PUBMED
  • Niquini et al.. Persistently high hepatitis C rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Scientific Reports, 2022.
  • Torres, Bastos, et al.. Avaliação de risco para infecção HIV em homens que fazem sexo com homens e a contribuição das redes de parceiros sexuais. Ciência & Saúde Coletiva, 2021.
  • Coutinho, Bastos et al.. The risks of HCV infection among Brazilian crack cocaine users: incorporating diagnostic test uncertainty. Scientific Reports, 2019.
  • Bastos, Bastos et al.. HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis among transgender women from Brazil. Medicine, 2018.
  • MacCharty et al.. Mind the gap: implementation challenges break the link between HIV/AIDS research and practice. Cadernos de Saude, 2016.

Other infectious diseases

  • Freitas et al. Evaluation of the design of the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance systemin Brazil. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2024. PUBMED
  • Silva et al.. Severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in Brazil: the role of public, private and philanthropic healthcare units. Health Policy And Planning, 2022.
  • Barrenechea et al.. Análisis por series temporales dela incidencia de varicela y el impacto de la implementación de la vacuna en Tucumán. Revista Argentina de Salud Publica, 2020.
  • Viana et al.. Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis. PLOS One, 2020.
  • de Almeida et al.. Accuracy of rapid test for diagnosis of hepatitis A with different infection rate settings and with predictive modeling. Future Microbiology, 2019.
  • Barrenechea & Bastos. Evaluation of impact of one dose varicella vaccine on the incidence of chickenpox in Argentina. Vaccine, 2019.
  • Rodrigues et al.. Distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil): a spatial analysis. Ciencia & Saude Coletiva, 2017.

Statistical methods (Theory and applied statistics)

  • Carvalho et al.. Bayesian Inference for the Weights in Logarithmic Pooling. Bayesian Analysis, 2023.
  • Pavani, Bastos & Moraga. Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2023.
  • Ferreira et al. Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.
  • Sperandei et al.. Assessing logistic regression applied to respondent-driven sampling studies: a simulation study with an application to empirical data. International Journal Of Social Research Methodology, 2022.
  • Lowe et al.. Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.
  • Izbicki et al.. How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo? Clinics, 2021.
  • Lana et al.. Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2021.
  • Colon-Gonzalez, Bastos, et al.. Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles. PLOS Medicine, 2021.
  • Bastos et al.. A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. Statistics in Medicine, 2019.
  • Gonçalves, Migon & Bastos. Dynamic Quantile Linear Models: A Bayesian Approach. Bayesian Analysis, 2020.
  • Paiva et al.. Women who have undergone abortion in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.
  • Coutinho, Bastos et al.. The risks of HCV infection among Brazilian crack cocaine users: incorporating diagnostic test uncertainty. Scientific Reports, 2019.
  • Sperandei et al. Assessing respondent-driven sampling: A simulation study across different networks. Social Networks, 2018.
  • Bastos, Bastos et al.. HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis among transgender women from Brazil. Medicine, 2018.
  • Bastos, de Oliveira & Velasque. Obtaining adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models in cross-sectional studies. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2015.
  • Zapata-Vazquez, Bastos & O’Hagan. Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions. Journal Of Applied Statistics, 2014.
  • Bastos & Rosa. Predicting probabilities for the 2010 FIFA World Cup games using a Poisson-Gamma model. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013.
  • Paiva & Bastos. Análise do risco de mortalidade e de morbidade hospitalar do SUS por doenças respiratórias usando modelo de regressão Poisson com efeitos aleatórios. Revista Brasileira de Estatística, 2012.
  • Bastos & O’Hagan. Diagnostics for Gaussian Process Emulators, Technometrics, 2009.
  • Bastos & Gamerman. Dynamic survival models with spatial frailty. Lifetime Data Analysis, 2006.
  • Loschi, Bastos & Iglesias. Identifying Volatility Clusters Using the PPM: A Sensitivity Analysis. Computational Economics, 2005.

Papers on other areas and subjects

  • Oliveira et al.. Racial inequalities in the development of multimorbidity of chronic conditions: results from a Brazilian prospective cohort. International Journal for Equity in Health, 2024. PUBMED
  • Costa et al.. MDexciteR: Enhanced Sampling Molecular Dynamics by Excited Normal Modes or Principal Components Obtained from Experiments. Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation, 2023.
  • De Almeida et al.. Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020–2021. Brazilian Journal of Epidemiology, 2023.
  • Oliveira et al.. Racial inequalities in multimorbidity: baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). BMC Public Health, 2022.
  • Rodrigues et al.. Temporal evolution of homicide mortality in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019. Journal Of Aggression Conflict And Peace Research, 2021.
  • Rocha, Bastos & Costa. Identification of Potential Allosteric Binding Sites in Cathepsin K Based on Intramolecular Communication. Proteins-Structure Function And Bioinformatics, 2020.
  • Torres et al.. Do men who have sex with men who report alcohol and illicit drug use before/during sex (Chemsex) present moderate/high risk for substance use disorders? Drug And Alcohol Dependence, 2020.
  • Barrenechea et al.. Factores determinantes de tabaquismo en mujeres embarazadas atendidas en instituciones públicas de la Provincia de Tucumán, Argentina. Revista Americana de Medicina Respiratoria, 2020.
  • Valois-Santos et al.. Reassessing geographic bottlenecks in a respondent-driven sampling based multicity study in Brazil. Salud Colectiva, 2020.
  • Soares et al.. Studying effects of different protonation states of His11 and His102 in ribose-5-phosphate isomerase of : an example of cooperative behavior. Journal of Biomolecular Structure and Dynamics, 2019.
  • Juvanhol et al.. Association between demand-control model components and blood pressure in the ELSA-Brasil study: exploring heterogeneity using quantile regression analyses. Scandinavian Journal of Work Environment & Health, 2018.
  • Cysne-Finkelstein et al.. Evidence of Subpopulations with Distinct Biological Features Within a Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Strain. Protist, 2018.
  • Vaconcellos et al.. Natural infection by the protozoan Leptomonas wallacei impacts the morphology, physiology, reproduction, and lifespan of the insect Oncopeltus fasciatus. Scientific Reports, 2019.
  • Souza et al.. Nocturnal Activity Rhythm of Nyssomyia intermedia (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Campus Fiocruz Mata Atlântica, an American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission Area, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2019.
  • da Silvia et al.. Integrated analysis of ethionamide resistance loci in Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates. Tuberculosis, 2018
  • Faccion et al.. p53 expression and subcellular survivin localization improve the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with diffuse astrocytic tumors. Cellular Oncology, 2018.
  • Lima-Neiva et al.. Biology of Triatoma sherlocki (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Under Laboratory Conditions: Biological Cycle and Resistance to Starvation. Journal Of Medical Entomology, 2017.
  • Rizzetto et al.. Chronic kidney disease progression: a retrospective analysis of 3-year adherence to a low protein diet. Renal Failure, 2017.
  • Toledo et al.. Criminal justice involvement of crack cocaine users in the city of Rio de Janeiro and Greater Metropolitan Area: Implications for public health and the public security agenda. International Journal of Drug Policy, 2017.
  • Juvanhol et al.. Factors associated with overweight: are the conclusions influenced by choice of the regression method? BMC Public Health, 2016.
  • de Azevedo et al.. Neonatal care in Brazil: hospital structure and adequacy according to newborn obstetric risk. Paediatrics And International Child Health, 2015.
  • Bazin et al.. Terapia antirretroviral em crianças e adolescentes infectados pelo HIV: o que sabemos após 30 anos de epidemia. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2014.
  • de Boni et al.. Unrecorded alcohol in Rio de Janeiro: assessing its misusers through respondent-driven sampling. Drug And Alcohol Dependence, 2014.
  • Griep, Bastos et al.. Years worked at night and body mass index among registered nurses from eighteen public hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Health Services Research, 2014.

Book and book chapters

Book

  • Bastos & Wilkinson. Análise Estatística de Simuladores (Statistical Analysis of Computer Experiments). Simpósio Nacional de Probabilidade e Estatística 19o (SINAPE).

Book chapters

  • Bastos, Carvalho & Gomes. Modelling misreported data in Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project, Chapman Hall, 2022
  • Gammerman, Mayrink & Bastos. Pandemic Data, in Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project, Chapman Hall, 2022
  • Pontes et al.. Pandemia de Covid-19 e os Povos Indígenas no Brasil: cenários sociopolíticos e epidemiológicos, in Os impactos sociais da Covid-19 no Brasil: populações vulnerabilizadas e respostas à pandemia. Editora Fiocruz, 2021.
  • Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da Covid-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica nas microrregiões brasileiras. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2 no estado do Amazonas. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Vulnerabilidade das populações indígenas à pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil e os desafios para o seu monitoramento. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Carvalho, Struchiner, Bastos. Bayesian Inference of Deterministic Population Growth Models, In Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics: EBEB 2014. Springer, 2015.

Packages