In summary, I have published a total of 85 papers in peer-reviewed journals, one book, and seven book chapters in 4 different books.



  • Domingos et al.. Influence of internal migration on multimorbidity in the Brazilian longitudinal study of adult health (ELSA-Brasil), Journal of Public Health.
  • Oliveira et al.. Racial inequalities in the development of multimorbidity of chronic conditions: results from a Brazilian prospective cohort. International Journal for Equity in Health
  • Veras et al. TransOdara study: The challenge of integrating methods, settings and procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Revista Brasieira de Epidemiologia.
  • Freitas et al. Evaluation of the design of the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance systemin Brazil. Cadernos de Saude Publica.
  • da Silva et al. Cohort profile: follow-up of a household cohort throughout five epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Cadernos de Saude Publica.


  • Amaral, Lana & Bastos. Was the COVID-19 epidemic synchronous in space? An analysis in the health regions of the Rio de Janeiro state, 2020-2022. Brazilian Journal of Epidemiology, 2024.
  • Moreira, Bastos, Carvalho, Freitas, Pacheco. Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022. PLOS Global Public Health, 2024.


  • Carvalho et al.. Bayesian Inference for the Weights in Logarithmic Pooling. Bayesian Analysis, 2023.
  • Ayala et al.. Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times. Malaria Journal, 2023.
  • Costa et al.. MDexciteR: Enhanced Sampling Molecular Dynamics by Excited Normal Modes or Principal Components Obtained from Experiments. Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation, 2023.
  • Brindle, Bastos, et al.. The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2023.
  • Fuller, Bastos, et al. The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic. Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society, 2023.
  • Penetra et al.. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases in a household-based prospective cohort in Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Infectious Diseases.
  • Ferreira et al.. The expansion of chikungunya in Brazil. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.
  • Pavani, Bastos & Moraga. Joint spatial modeling of the risks of co-circulating mosquito-borne diseases in Ceará, Brazil. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2023.
  • De Almeida et al.. Registration with Primary Health Care and COVID-19 mortality: cohort of diabetics from five administrative health regions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2020–2021. Brazilian Journal of Epidemiology, 2023.
  • Ferreira et al. Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.
  • Santos et al.. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study. Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 2023.


  • Sperandei et al.. Assessing logistic regression applied to respondent-driven sampling studies: a simulation study with an application to empirical data. International Journal Of Social Research Methodology, 2022.
  • Brasil et al.. Cohort-profile: Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMJ Open, 2022.
  • Leveau & Bastos. Desigualdades socioespaciales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en tres olas de propagación: un análisis intraurbano en Argentina. Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2022.
  • Codeço et al.. Fast expansion of dengue in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.
  • Miller et al.. Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2022.
  • Barberia, et al.. Government inaction on COVID-19 vaccines contributes to the persistence of childism in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.
  • Carvalho, Bastos, et al.. Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over four epidemic waves in a low-resource community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A prospective cohort study. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.
  • Ayala et al.. On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis. Malaria Journal, 2022.
  • Niquini et al.. Persistently high hepatitis C rates in haemodialysis patients in Brazil [a systematic review and meta-analysis]. Scientific Reports, 2022.
  • Oliveira et al.. Racial inequalities in multimorbidity: baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). BMC Public Health, 2022.
  • Barberia et al.. School reopening and COVID-19 in Brazil. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2022.
  • Silva et al.. Severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in Brazil: the role of public, private and philanthropic healthcare units. Health Policy And Planning, 2022.
  • Brizzi et al.. Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals. Nature Medicine, 2022.


  • Torres, Bastos, et al.. Avaliação de risco para infecção HIV em homens que fazem sexo com homens e a contribuição das redes de parceiros sexuais. Ciência & Saúde Coletiva, 2021.
  • Lowe et al.. Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2021.
  • Izbicki et al.. How many hospitalizations has the COVID-19 vaccination already prevented in São Paulo? Clinics, 2021.
  • Lana et al.. Identificação de grupos prioritários para a vacinação contra COVID-19 no Brasil. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2021.
  • Colon-Gonzalez, Bastos, et al.. Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles. PLOS Medicine, 2021.
  • Lugon et al.. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in Children and Household Contacts in a Slum in Rio de Janeiro. Pediatrics, 2021.
  • Coura-Vidal, et al.. Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process. Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de São Paulo, 2021
  • Rodrigues et al.. Temporal evolution of homicide mortality in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019. Journal Of Aggression Conflict And Peace Research, 2021.


  • Barrenechea et al.. Análisis por series temporales dela incidencia de varicela y el impacto de la implementación de la vacuna en Tucumán. Revista Argentina de Salud Publica, 2020.
  • Coelho et al.. Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability. PLOS One, 2020.
  • Carvalho et al.. Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil. Scientific Reports, 2020.
  • Bastos et al.. COVID-19 e hospitalizações por SRAG no Brasil: uma comparação até a 12ª semana epidemiológica de 2020. Cadernos De Saude Publica, 2020.
  • Torres et al.. Do men who have sex with men who report alcohol and illicit drug use before/during sex (Chemsex) present moderate/high risk for substance use disorders? Drug And Alcohol Dependence, 2020.
  • Gonçalves, Migon & Bastos. Dynamic Quantile Linear Models: A Bayesian Approach. Bayesian Analysis, 2020.
  • Lana et al.. Emergência do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) e o papel de uma vigilância nacional em saúde oportuna e efetiva. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.
  • Barrenechea et al.. Factores determinantes de tabaquismo en mujeres embarazadas atendidas en instituciones públicas de la Provincia de Tucumán, Argentina. Revista Americana de Medicina Respiratoria, 2020.
  • Viana et al.. Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis. PLOS One, 2020.
  • Rocha, Bastos & Costa. Identification of Potential Allosteric Binding Sites in Cathepsin K Based on Intramolecular Communication. Proteins-Structure Function And Bioinformatics, 2020.
  • Gomes et al.. Measuring the contribution of human mobility to malaria persistence. Malaria Journal, 2020.
  • Valois-Santos et al.. Reassessing geographic bottlenecks in a respondent-driven sampling based multicity study in Brazil. Salud Colectiva, 2020.
  • Izbicki, DInis & Bastos. Sensitivity and specificity in prevalence studies: The importance of considering uncertainty. Clinics, 2020.
  • Niquini et al.. SRAG por COVID-19 no Brasil: descrição e comparação de características demográficas e comorbidades com SRAG por influenza e com a população geral. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.
  • Brady et al.. The cost-effectiveness of controlling dengue in Indonesia using wMel Wolbachia released at scale: a modelling study. BMC Medicine, 2020.
  • Paiva et al.. Women who have undergone abortion in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: application of a Bayesian hierarchical model. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2020.


  • Bastos et al.. A modelling approach for correcting reporting delays in disease surveillance data. Statistics in Medicine, 2019.
  • de Almeida et al.. Accuracy of rapid test for diagnosis of hepatitis A with different infection rate settings and with predictive modeling. Future Microbiology, 2019.
  • Barrenechea & Bastos. Evaluation of impact of one dose varicella vaccine on the incidence of chickenpox in Argentina. Vaccine, 2019.
  • Vaconcellos et al.. Natural infection by the protozoan Leptomonas wallacei impacts the morphology, physiology, reproduction, and lifespan of the insect Oncopeltus fasciatus. Scientific Reports, 2019.
  • Souza et al.. Nocturnal Activity Rhythm of Nyssomyia intermedia (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Campus Fiocruz Mata Atlântica, an American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission Area, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2019.
  • Soares et al.. Studying effects of different protonation states of His11 and His102 in ribose-5-phosphate isomerase of : an example of cooperative behavior. Journal of Biomolecular Structure and Dynamics, 2019.
  • Coutinho, Bastos et al.. The risks of HCV infection among Brazilian crack cocaine users: incorporating diagnostic test uncertainty. Scientific Reports, 2019.


  • Sperandei et al. Assessing respondent-driven sampling: A simulation study across different networks. Social Networks, 2018.
  • Juvanhol et al.. Association between demand-control model components and blood pressure in the ELSA-Brasil study: exploring heterogeneity using quantile regression analyses. Scandinavian Journal of Work Environment & Health, 2018.
  • Cysne-Finkelstein et al.. Evidence of Subpopulations with Distinct Biological Features Within a Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Strain. Protist, 2018.
  • Bastos, Bastos et al.. HIV, HCV, HBV, and syphilis among transgender women from Brazil. Medicine, 2018.
  • Codeço et al.. Infodengue: A nowcasting system for the surveillance of arboviruses in Brazil. Revue de Epidemiologie et de Sante Publique, 2018.
  • da Silvia et al.. Integrated analysis of ethionamide resistance loci in Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates. Tuberculosis, 2018
  • Faccion et al.. p53 expression and subcellular survivin localization improve the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with diffuse astrocytic tumors. Cellular Oncology, 2018.


  • Lima-Neiva et al.. Biology of Triatoma sherlocki (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Under Laboratory Conditions: Biological Cycle and Resistance to Starvation. Journal Of Medical Entomology, 2017.
  • Rizzetto et al.. Chronic kidney disease progression: a retrospective analysis of 3-year adherence to a low protein diet. Renal Failure, 2017.
  • Toledo et al.. Criminal justice involvement of crack cocaine users in the city of Rio de Janeiro and Greater Metropolitan Area: Implications for public health and the public security agenda. International Journal of Drug Policy, 2017.
  • Rodrigues et al.. Distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil): a spatial analysis. Ciencia & Saude Coletiva, 2017.
  • Lima et al.. MosqTent: An individual portable protective double-chamber mosquito trap for anthropophilic mosquitoes. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2017.
  • Villela, Bastos et al.. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks. Epidemiology And Infection, 2017.


  • Juvanhol et al.. Factors associated with overweight: are the conclusions influenced by choice of the regression method? BMC Public Health, 2016.
  • Coelho et al.. Higher incidence of Zika in adult women than adult men in Rio de Janeiro suggests a significant contribution of sexual transmission from men to women. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2016.
  • MacCharty et al.. Mind the gap: implementation challenges break the link between HIV/AIDS research and practice. Cadernos de Saude, 2016.
  • Codeço et al.. Zika is not a reason for missing the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro: response to the open letter of Dr Attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, Director - General, WHO, on the Zika threat to the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Memorias Do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2016.


  • de Azevedo et al.. Neonatal care in Brazil: hospital structure and adequacy according to newborn obstetric risk. Paediatrics And International Child Health, 2015.
  • Bastos, de Oliveira & Velasque. Obtaining adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models in cross-sectional studies. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2015.
  • Zapata-Vazquez, Bastos & O’Hagan. Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions. Journal Of Applied Statistics, 2014.
  • Bazin et al.. Terapia antirretroviral em crianças e adolescentes infectados pelo HIV: o que sabemos após 30 anos de epidemia. Cadernos de Saude Publica, 2014.
  • de Boni et al.. Unrecorded alcohol in Rio de Janeiro: assessing its misusers through respondent-driven sampling. Drug And Alcohol Dependence, 2014.
  • Griep, Bastos et al.. Years worked at night and body mass index among registered nurses from eighteen public hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Health Services Research, 2014.
  • Bastos & Rosa. Predicting probabilities for the 2010 FIFA World Cup games using a Poisson-Gamma model. Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013.
  • Paiva & Bastos. Análise do risco de mortalidade e de morbidade hospitalar do SUS por doenças respiratórias usando modelo de regressão Poisson com efeitos aleatórios. Revista Brasileira de Estatística, 2012.
  • Bastos & O’Hagan. Diagnostics for Gaussian Process Emulators, Technometrics, 2009.
  • Bastos & Gamerman. Dynamic survival models with spatial frailty. Lifetime Data Analysis, 2006.
  • Loschi, Bastos & Iglesias. Identifying Volatility Clusters Using the PPM: A Sensitivity Analysis. Computational Economics, 2005.

Book and book chapters


  • Bastos & Wilkinson. Análise Estatística de Simuladores (Statistical Analysis of Computer Experiments). Simpósio Nacional de Probabilidade e Estatística 19o (SINAPE).

Book chapters

  • Bastos, Carvalho & Gomes. Modelling misreported data in Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project, Chapman Hall, 2022
  • Gammerman, Mayrink & Bastos. Pandemic Data, in Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction From Data Modelling to Visualisation - The CovidLP Project, Chapman Hall, 2022
  • Pontes et al.. Pandemia de Covid-19 e os Povos Indígenas no Brasil: cenários sociopolíticos e epidemiológicos, in Os impactos sociais da Covid-19 no Brasil: populações vulnerabilizadas e respostas à pandemia. Editora Fiocruz, 2021.
  • Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da Covid-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica nas microrregiões brasileiras. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Pandemia pelo SARS-CoV-2 no estado do Amazonas. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Vulnerabilidade das populações indígenas à pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil e os desafios para o seu monitoramento. In Covid-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde. Editora Fiocruz, 2021
  • Carvalho, Struchiner, Bastos. Bayesian Inference of Deterministic Population Growth Models, In Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics: EBEB 2014. Springer, 2015.